Property valuations and prices have seen significant fluctuations across Australia over the past year. Each state and territory has experienced unique valuation trends shaped by local market conditions.
New South Wales
New South Wales, including Sydney, saw property values reach record highs in early 2022 before declining around 5% in the second half of the year as interest rates rose. The market is now more balanced between buyers and sellers.
Inner Sydney apartments have fallen the most while detached houses in desirable suburbs remain resilient. The Central Coast, Newcastle, and Wollongong markets have also softened. Further declines are expected into 2023 but the rate of falls should moderate.
Victoria
Melbourne property values surpassed their 2017 peak in early 2022 then retracted around 5% as credit conditions tightened. The inner-city apartment market has been hit hardest while houses in middle-ring suburbs have held up better.
Regional Victoria remains firm, propped up by elevated demand from city migrants. A gradual cooling is forecast for Melbourne through 2023, while regional markets may plateau earlier following huge gains.
Queensland
Brisbane has been the strongest capital city market, with values still around 10% higher than mid-2021 peaks. However, growth has slowed sharply amid rising rates and affordability barriers. The Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast have begun falling from record highs.
Cairns, Townsville and Mackay remain bright spots, buoyed by international tourism resuming. Tighter lending and mounting economic uncertainty point to a peak in Queensland markets during 2023.
Western Australia
Perth property values rose over 20% during 2021-2022, making it the top growth market nationally. Momentum has eased but remain solid underpinned by high rents, low unemployment and limited stock levels. Further measured growth is expected barring any economic shocks.
South Australia
Adelaide’s market has moderated from its rapid growth phase, with values plateauing over the past six months. More subdued conditions are likely in 2023 as interstate migration slows although underlying demand remains healthy. Regional SA remains an outperformer.
Tasmanian
Hobart’s red-hot market has cooled rapidly from its peak in early 2022, seeing values retract around 8%. Acute rental shortages persist but buyers have turned cautious as affordability strains bite. Steady conditions are anticipated in 2023. Regional Tasmania remains resilient.
Northern Territory
Darwin property values have been subdued for several years but are now rising gradually, up around 5% in 2022. Increasing interstate demand is improving market conditions, although population growth is still lagging the national average.
Australian Capital Territory
Canberra saw booming growth during 2021 with values rising over 30%, spurred by expansion in public service jobs. However, the market has reversed sharply in recent months as higher rates erode borrowing power. Further softening is expected into 2023. Apartments have declined more than houses.
In summary, the robust two-year growth cycle across Australian property markets has ended, with a downward correction underway in most cities led by higher interest rates. While further measured declines are likely in 2023, a severe crash remains unlikely without much higher rates or a spike in unemployment.
